Game play
Colby is a Survivor legend, and deservedly so. On his original season of the show he was such a physically dominant player that he arguably created the term ‘challenge monster’, he also established that he put strategy second in many ways when he brought Tina to the finals just to make sure there was no chance Keith would win. This season Colby’s reputation for not being strategically great has held up, but he is no longer the physical beast that he used to be.
In the beginning in the Heroes tribe, Colby found himself allying with Tom and Stephenie an alliance that ended up on the downside of the numbers early. They would get a brief stay of execution when JT used them to eliminate Cirie, but Tom would be eliminated shortly thereafter. Colby was left on a dwindling Heroes tribe that was desperate to seize the momentum and was spared when they decided they had to vote off the injured James. We’ll never know if Colby would have made it longer in the game, as the Villains tribe went on a losing streak at that point which would carry them into the merge.
Since then, Colby hasn’t had much of an effect on the game. He was a supporter of JT’s idol ploy, and firmly believed that Candice could be trusted. The one shining moment for Colby came when he convinced Rupert to vote for Candice so that the Villains split vote plan failed to draw out Rupert’s ‘idol’. Colby’s chance to win mostly comes from the fact that he’s not a villain and he’s not Russell.
Chance to Make the Final Tribal Council - 6%
We saw the ‘Villains’ close ranks and vote out Rupert this week, though in part that was because Parvati had immunity. That certainly suggests that the remaining ‘Villains’ will not let Colby get to the Final Tribal Council if they can avoid it. Given Colby’s lack of current allies he also doesn’t have a safety net to alleviate that danger at all. If Colby is going to make the Final Tribal Council he’s going to have to get there on his own, by winning immunities.
Chance to Win – 4%
If Colby does make it to the final Tribal Council he likely will win the money. Russel is hated by the Jury, Jerri isn’t respected strategically and Parvati as a villain is tainted by her association with Russell. The only Survivor with a good chance to beat him in front of the Jury is Sandra. Colby can’t really make a strategy argument if he makes it to the final, but his presence there would be the only argument he needs. Colby’s overall chance to win is so low, because his path to get to the Final Tribal Council is so murky, and to get there he might have to bring Sandra… who can beat him.
Ideal Final Tribal Council
Colby’s ideal tribal council is Parvati and Russell, which would likely split the jurors willing to look past their personal feelings and vote for game play, insuring that the personality based votes carry the day. While he can likely win if either of those two is replaced by Jerri, having Russel and Parvati rip each other apart in front of the Jury can only help him.
