On Sunday the 20th winner of Survivor will be crowned. This season of Heroes vs Villians has been an instant classic with great gameplay, horrible blunders, memorable moments, and big personalities. Our pre-season predictions of a Hero dominated game ended up being horribly wrong, with predicted favorites leaving early and predicted dogs going deep into the game. Now we’re down to five players, with one Hero remaining, and we take a look at how this unpredictable season of Survivor might play out.
Final 5 eviction
The person who gets voted out at the Final 5 Tribal Council seems like a no brainer as all of the Villians realize that Colby would have a good shot of getting jury votes if he makes the Final 3. Colby has not shown any ability to win challenges like he used to (shuffleboard notwithstanding…) and is therefore unlikely to be wearing the immunity necklace at Tribal Council. The only thing that might save Colby is if Russell can convince Jerri and/or Sandra that Parvati is a threat to win final immunity and the game and needs to go. If they decide to do that, then they could get rid of Colby at Final 4. They would risk giving Colby one last chance to win an immunity challenge, which would all-but guarantee him a Survivor win. We feel that they’ll take the safer route, eliminate Colby, and then go from there.
Predicted Final 5 Elimination: Colby Donaldson
Final 4 Eviction
At Final 4, it’s gets more interesting, and if neither player wins immunity, the final eviction vote will most likely come down to a choice between Parvati or Sandra. Russell and Jerri seem like a virtual lock to make it to the Final Tribal council so they will, essentially, determine who accompanies them and who wins the million dollars.
Parvati might be able to convince Russell and Jerri to get rid of Sandra and go to the Final 3 together as a variation on the old power alliance of Russell, Parvati & Danielle. This would eliminate Sandra as a possible “lesser evil” option for the Heroes on the jury. This argument requires that Parvati convince Russell and Jerri that Sandra is a threat to win based on the fact Sandra hasn’t screwed over the Heroes as much as the 3 of them have. It can only help her cause if Russell is aware that Sandra tried to help the Heroes against the Villians.
Sandra needs to make the case to Russell and Jerri that Parvati is a smooth talker with friends on the jury who would win if she makes the Final 3. It’s an easy case to present since it’s mostly true. This argument will be helped significantly if we’re correct that Russell thinks Sandra is a nothing player that has ridden along with the Villains alliance. Russell could easily underestimate the weight Sandra would carry with the Jury.
The question is, what are Jerri and Russell’s thoughts on what the jury will do? Does Russell realize that Sandra is a threat to win jury votes? Does Jerri have a jury argument ready and would getting rid of Parvati add to that argument?
Of course, the most interesting scenario would be a 2-2 tie between Sandra and Parvati and then we would get to see if either of them has built a fire while they’ve been out there. Our guess is they haven’t.
Predicted Final 4 Elimination: Parvati Shallow
Final 3 Prediction: Russell Hantz, Jerri Manthey & Sandra Diaz-Twine
Final Tribal Council
So, once Russell, Jerri & Sandra get to the Final Tribal Council, who wins?
Russell
Russell filmed this season of Survivor before his previous season aired, so while he knows that his over-bearing style got him to the end, he doesn’t know it meant he lost to Natalie White. Russell will talk about how he controlled the game, how he manipulated people and how everything he wanted to happen, happened. These are good arguments but Russell still doesn’t understand that once you get rid of someone, you still need them to feel comfortable voting to give you a million dollars. This jury will not feel comfortable voting to give Russell a million dollars.
Jerri
Jerri is an interesting case because while she hasn’t planned anything or executed any type of strategy, she has made many of the most crucial votes in the game. We’re just not sure if Jerri will be able to articulate that to the jury in a form that would make them want to vote for her. This season Jerri has avoided much of the drama and has been content to sit back and let Russell, Parvati & Danielle do the planning and plotting and then act as she saw fit at the time. That’s completely different from her original season in Australia when she wouldn’t leave Colby alone to the point where Colby got rid of her when there were still Kucha members Elisabeth and Roger still around. In the end though, we don’t see Jerri making enough of an argument to the jury to get the win over the final member of the Final 3.
Sandra
That leaves us with Sandra. Sandra is probably the Villian that the Heroes resent the least and that might be able to win her game. Sandra would need to make the argument that she was able to survive being in the minority of the Villians alliance even as three other members of that alliance were eliminated. She could also point out to the Heroes that she tried to help them against Russell and the Villians alliance but the Heroes wouldn’t listen, causing their eliminations. Sandra is also tight with Courtney from before the merge and Coach doesn’t know yet that Sandra is the one who convinced Russell to get rid of him. In a Final 3 with Russell and Jerri, Sandra’s chances are good as no one on the jury will vote for Russell and we don’t have confidence in Jerri’s ability to make a compelling argument for the win.
Predicted Winner: Sandra Diaz
Predicted Vote: (6 – 2 – 1)
