Survivor Final 5 Analysis: Jerri Manthey

Game Play

Jerri has never been the biggest strategic threat on Survivor, and both of us were dismissive of her being included on this season, predicting at best a Jury finish for her. But here we are with the Final 5 going into the Sunday finale and here Jerri is, not only surviving in the game, but almost guaranteed to make the Final Three. If we were placing bets at the start of the season Jerri Manthey would have cost us a lot of money.

As with season’s past Jerri wasn’t the Field Marshall this season, but she wasn’t just a Private either. As a member of Boston Rob’s alliance she stuck with the voting plan laid out by her alliance, only to see that plan fall apart. Thinking that Rob was vulnerable, which was true because she thought it was, she was convinced by Parvati / Danielle / Russell to switch alliances, her vote being the key vote that crowned a new King of Survivor. It was Jerri who seemed to indicate that it was time for Candice to go home, and later when the Villains alliance began to come apart Jerri again had the swing vote sending Danielle to the Jury.

For the most part these moves weren’t Jerri’s as Russell was pulling her strings on the votes that eliminated Danielle and Rob, but these moves were also probably the right moves from Jerri’s perspective. Specifically, voting with Russell to oust Danielle positions Jerri perfectly to make the final three. Russell needs her to be there, Parvati should want her there and Colby if he had the power would want to oust Russell or Parvati. She would also go to the Final Tribal Council with the ability to say that she had control at every step, that she knew who she wanted to go to the finals with and used her swing vote wisely. The only problem with that scenario is that Jerri, fairly obviously, has been flummoxed and confused by the goings on in the disintegrating Villains side and has mostly voted from fear of Russell, rather than strategy. As Courtney pointed out, Jerri flipped alliances at the right time… but as Jerri pointed out, she didn’t think she was even allied with Rob.

Still, Jerri has a potentially winning Final Tribal argument which is more than Amanda ever brought with her.

Chances of Making Final Tribal Council – 100%

Taking Jerri is not quite as safe a bet as Russell, because people don’t hate her. But people certainly don’t respect her game play, partly because they see her as the puppet of Russell, which isn’t totally wrong. In any event Jerri is a very low priority target for the remaining power players. She’s not as dangerous as either Colby, Parvati or Sandra and it seems a fait accompli that she’ll face the jury.

Chances of Winning - 10%

Jerri has a winning argument to make as listed above, and that’s the first step towards winning the game. The question for Jerri will be if she’s able to make it and if she can convince the Jury members of it. This is one case where the familiarity the players have with each other will hurt Jerri as no one thinks of her as really operating strategically. It would take a fair amount of luck and quick thinking for her to capture the prize, but the one absolute requirement is covered.

Optimal Final Tribal Council

Jerri’s optimal companions in front of the Jury are Russell and Sandra. Russell because he has the slimmest chances of winning and Sandra because she is the safest of the remaining choices. Jerri might out-argue Sandra, but Parvati would eat Jerri alive, and Colby wins if he faces the jury with almost anyone.